Reform UK is on course to return 22 MSPs at next year’s Holyrood election, making Nigel Farage’s party the second largest in the Scottish Parliament, a new poll suggests.
For the first time, Survation has Reform in second place on both the list and constituency votes.
While the poll shows the SNP remaining Scotland’s largest party, First Minister John Swinney would be around 10 seats short of a majority, throwing his independence strategy into chaos.
The polling was commissioned by the IPPR Scotland think tank ahead of its 10th anniversary conference on Wednesday.
It shows the SNP leading on 34% of the constituency vote, followed by Reform UK on 22% and Labour on 18%. The Conservatives are on 10%, the Liberal Democrats on 8%, the Greens on 7% and Alba on 1%.
On the regional list vote, the SNP remain ahead on 29%, with Reform UK on 20%, Labour on 17%, the Tories on 12%, and the LibDems and Greens both on 10%, with Alba on 2%.
Compared with last month’s Survation poll, the SNP are down three points on the constituency vote and two on the list, while Reform UK are up four points on both, leapfrogging Labour to take second place. Labour and the Conservatives each slip slightly, while the Greens edge up.
Modelling by Mark Diffley shows that, compared with the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, when the SNP won 64 seats—just one short of a majority—they would fall nine to 55.
The Tories, who previously held 31, would fall to 12, while Labour would drop slightly from 22 to 19. The Greens would rise from eight to 10, and the Liberal Democrats from four to 11.
Reform UK would win 22.
“This is the first poll in Scotland to show Reform UK in second place on both the constituency and regional list votes,” Mr Diffley said. “It consolidates the trend we have seen over the past year, with the party averaging around 20% support and now edging ahead at 22%.”
“They seem to be pushing Labour further back into third place, which is a clear problem for Labour,” he added.
The polling also shows widespread pessimism about Scotland’s future and deep scepticism over the next government’s ability to deliver improvements in health, equality and public services.
While voters agree on key priorities like the NHS and the cost of living, few believe politicians can deliver them.
The Survation poll comes just days after Labour was trounced in the Caerphilly by-election—an area the party had represented for more than a century.
Its vote collapsed from 46% to 11% and Plaid Cymru seized the seat, while Reform UK came second on 36%.
Bookmakers had Mr Farage’s party as favourites, something Labour spindoctors were keen to point out on Friday morning.
The result sparked a furious row between Welsh Labour and the national party, with some politicians in Wales blaming Sir Keir Starmer for the humiliating defeat.
Although the SNP are set to remain the largest party, their failure to secure a majority would make governing difficult, with Mr Swinney forced to rely on others to pass legislation and budgets.
It would also scupper the SNP’s strategy for securing a second independence referendum.
While the poll suggests the Greens would take 10 seats meaning a pro-independence majority, Mr Swinney made clear to delegates his push depended on an SNP majority.
During the conference in Aberdeen, the SNP’s depute leader Keith Brown told journalists the First Minister had “staked his premiership” on winning independence.
Fieldwork for the poll took place between September 22 and October 14, with 2,043 adults questioned.
Stephen Boyd, Director of IPPR Scotland, said the polling indicated that Reform “looks set to become a very significant presence a Holyrood” despite failing to “present anything approaching a serious policy agenda to address the public’s key concerns of improving public services, improving the economy and reducing poverty”.
He added: “It is difficult, if not impossible, to reflect on the challenges that our polling highlights—dissatisfaction with public services and very low confidence that things will improve—and conclude that Reform is the answer.
“Multiple reports have emerged recently of Reform-led councils in England floundering because they had assumed they would find high levels of wasteful spending that could be more effectively deployed elsewhere.
“Of course, what they found was that services are already cut to the bone and no fat left to trim. It seems that punting nativist memes around febrile online echo chambers is no preparation for effective administration.
“The growth of anti-establishment politics has its roots in voters’ growing belief that government does not deliver. That feeling is fed by overambitious targets and promises on the one hand and a lack of realism about tax on the other.
“Parties must present voters with the reality we face as pressures from climate and ageing grow—we either share the costs of dealing with these challenges fairly through the tax system, or we allow them to worsen and leave the public to deal with them out of their own pockets.”
Nigel Farage told The Herald on Sunday: “We are pleased with our progress in Scotland as we plan for the election next May.”
Keith Brown said: “This is yet another poll showing the SNP well in the lead, as John Swinney and the SNP Government deliver on people’s priorities and deliver hope for a better future with independence.
“But it is a disaster for Labour who have now fallen behind Nigel Farage into third place – Keir Starmer’s incompetent Labour government is becoming more unpopular by the day.
“Next year’s election is increasingly becoming a choice of two futures – an SNP Government and independence, or a future under a Westminster system dominated by Farage that is heading down a very dark path.”
Scottish Labour health spokesperson Jackie Baillie said: “The next election is a direct choice between a third decade of this tired and out-of-touch SNP government and a new direction with a Scottish Labour government.
“Under the SNP Scotland’s public services are at breaking point—from our NHS to our schools to our justice system.
“Reform are Tories in new rosettes—they have no answers to the challenges Scotland faces.”
Scottish Liberal Democrat election campaign chair Wendy Chamberlain said: “The Conservatives, Labour and the SNP have all let people down and are in decline.
“It is clear that the people of Scotland want change.
“That does not have to be bleak and nasty change with Reform. In many constituencies we are on the verge of winning against the SNP, but wherever you are, every vote for the Scottish Liberal Democrats on the second peach ballot will deliver change with fairness at its heart.”
Scottish Green co-leader Patrick Harvie said: “Polls consistently show that momentum behind the Greens is growing.
“We have just had our biggest conference for a decade and a 15% growth in membership—and it is showing no sign of slowing down.
“It is clear that people want bold solutions to the crises we face after 15 years of right-wing rule in the UK. That is what we delivered with free bus travel for young people, a national system of rent controls, and the abolition of peak rail fares, all paid for by taxing the rich.
“Every additional Scottish Green MSP will mean more solutions that take on the vested interests of the rich and deliver for people and planet.”
A Scottish Conservative spokesperson said: “Scotland desperately needs rid of the SNP after 18 years of failure—yet these figures are further evidence that voting Reform will only help John Swinney remain in power.
“The public are scunnered with disconnected politicians. But under Russell Findlay’s common-sense leadership, the Scottish Conservatives are different. We are focused on economic growth to generate more money for schools and hospitals and to cut household bills, not the fringe obsessions of the left-wing clique at Holyrood.”
