The Reform Party may benefit from Keir Starmer’s sudden shift in stance during the local elections, but which local councils might see the party rise to power?
The UK Reform Party is expected to become the largest party in four local councils following the government’s decision to reverse its plan to postpone local elections in May.
This move comes as 30 local authorities are accelerating their election schedules from 2027 after the government received advice from lawyers following a legal challenge from Reform UK.
Nigel Farage declared that this decision, affecting more than 4.5 million people, is not only “a victory for the Reform Party, but more importantly, a victory for democracy in this country.”
In fact, opinion polls suggest the rebel party would benefit from Starmer’s concessions, given the numerous vacant seats across the country.
A turquoise tsunami? Not exactly.
An analysis of the results of a large-scale poll of 5,000 voters conducted by JL Partners, first published in January, suggests that the Reform Party is expected to make significant progress in the election.
However, only about a third of the seats contested in most of the postponed elections have been held, meaning that even if the Reform Party wins a majority of seats in these councils, they still cannot gain complete control.
This limitation is most evident at Tamworth County Council, where polls show the Reform Party achieving 46%, followed by the Labour Party with 19% and the Conservative Party with 14%.
Despite leading by a considerable margin, only a third of the seats will be contested. However, a good result would send a strong message to the two main parties and give the Reform Party a foothold in future elections.
The dominance of turquoise
The Reform Party is leading in polls in four councils where all seats are up for election, suggesting the turquoise party will take control on election day.
The results are expected to be most overwhelming in the Thurrock local government in Essex. 40% of Thurrock Council voters supported Farage’s party, followed by 19% for the Labour party and 14% for the Conservative party.
The Reform Party is also leading in polls in Suffolk, West Sussex and East Sussex, where all seats are contested.
Overall, the Reform Party is projected to win 28% of the vote in areas where elections were cancelled, surpassing the Conservative Party with 21% and the Labour Party with 17%.
The Liberal Democratic Party and the Green Party are lagging behind, with 16% and 13% respectively.
Local Government Minister Steve Reed wrote a 353-word letter to council leaders on Monday, confirming the abrupt change of decision.
Mr. Reed wrote: “The government has confirmed that all local elections in May 2026 will proceed as planned.”
“I have observed that many local councils undergoing restructuring have expressed legitimate concerns about the pressure they are under as we seek to implement the most ambitious reforms to local government in a generation.”
“Therefore, I am pleased to announce today that we will be providing an additional £63 million in capacity-building funding to 21 local areas undergoing restructuring across the entire program, building on the £7.6 million already provided for proposal development last year.”
“I will provide more details on how those funds will be allocated soon.”
